Your Chief Virtual Learning Architect

Learning to Performance

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Custom Design & Delivery

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Predictive Evaluation

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Enterprise Learning Strategy

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Dave Basarab Consulting has elevated the training experience, offering an end-to-end comprehensive approach that includes training strategy, instructional design, development, delivery , post program training transfer, and evaluation (via the unique Predictive Evaluation methodology). Virtual Chief Architect Dave Basarab has combined all of these individual training elements with his user-friendly, comprehensive Learning to Performance approach, which significantly increases companies' training ROI.

Why we are different

Innovation: Our primary focus is creating learning programs using a Learning to Performance approach.
Expertise: Dave offers the depth and breadth of his experience, including working internally at prestigious companies (Motorola, Ingersoll Rand and Pitney Bowes) as well as his knowledge and expertise as a highly-respected, sought-after consultant.
Partnership: Basarab collaborates with companies, serving as their own Chief Learning Officer whenever they need to plan, strategize, or implement training initiatives.

Training Services

Enterprise Learning Strategy

Enterprise Learning Strategy

At Dave Basarab Consulting, we're experts in creating Enterprise Learning Plans. We work with you to develop your company's learning strategy and direction.

Custom Design, Development, & Delivery

Custom Design, Development, & Delivery

Custom training is an effective way of developing the capability required to execute your strategy. We are a custom design house that creates programs specific to your business.

Learning Burst Development

Learning Burst Development

We can create and deliver your courses via our unique Learning Burst Method - keeping your employees at their jobs while receiving world-class training.

Predictive Evaluation

Predictive Evaluation

We predict the ROI for your courses and establish success gates. We then evaluate the course against the success gates to show value realized and continually improve results.

Leadership Development

Leadership Development

Turn-key virtual custom leadership development program that combines world-class leadership speakers/educators with post-event personalized coaching to provide you with a cadre of highly skilled leaders.

Predictive Evaluation

How to Create a Risk-Adjusted ROI Model for Learning Programs

Learning investment is often approved using optimistic completion rates, broad productivity claims and a single expected return. That approach can make a program look financially attractive while hiding uncertainty around participation, workplace application, manager support and business conditions.

A risk-adjusted ROI model gives decision-makers a more credible view. It combines learning economics with adoption data, scenario probabilities and evidence of operational impact, helping Australian organisations decide where to invest, what to measure and when to change course.

Model element	Basic ROI approach	Risk-adjusted approach
Participation	Assumes planned attendance	Uses likely adoption ranges
Business benefit	Uses one forecast	Models conservative, expected and strong outcomes
Attribution	Credits training with all change	Separates training influence from other factors
Timing	Treats benefits as immediate	Applies a time horizon and discount rate
Decision value	Produces one percentage	Shows expected value and downside exposure

Define The Business Decision

Start with the decision the learning program is intended to support. It might be reducing safety incidents, improving sales conversion, shortening time to competence or preparing new managers for larger teams. A financial model becomes useful when its outcomes relate to a measurable business priority rather than training activity alone.

Set the evaluation period before calculating benefits. A six-month model may suit a software rollout, while a leadership capability program could require 12 to 24 months. Include implementation costs such as design, facilitation, learning technology, travel, participant time, manager coaching and post-program reinforcement.

Australian budgeting cycles matter here. Many organisations make major funding decisions around the end of the financial year, while teams in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane may have different operating rhythms and workforce constraints. Use costs that reflect the actual delivery model, including GST treatment where relevant, rather than relying on a generic per-learner estimate.

Estimate Adoption Before Impact

Expected benefit depends on behaviour being used at work. Model adoption as a chain: eligible employees reached, employees who participate, participants who demonstrate capability and employees who consistently apply the new behaviour. Each stage can reduce the eventual value of the program.

For example, a program reaching 800 employees might have an 80% participation rate, 70% capability transfer and 60% sustained workplace application. The effective adoption rate is 33.6%, before any business impact is calculated. This prevents a common error: applying an improvement percentage to every person who was invited.

An executive adoption dashboard can track these stages over time. Useful measures include manager observation, workflow usage, quality scores, customer outcomes and time to proficiency. Completion remains a useful signal, but it should not be treated as proof of adoption.

Build Scenarios And Probabilities

Create at least three scenarios: conservative, expected and strong. Each should state its assumptions about adoption, effect size, duration and operating conditions. Assign probabilities that add to 100%, based on pilot evidence, previous programs, stakeholder confidence and external research.

A simple expected benefit calculation is:

Expected benefit = Σ (scenario benefit × scenario probability)

Suppose the conservative case produces $120,000, the expected case $240,000 and the strong case $400,000. If their probabilities are 35%, 50% and 15%, the probability-weighted benefit is $222,000. If total cost is $140,000, the risk-adjusted ROI is:

($222,000 − $140,000) ÷ $140,000 × 100 = 58.6%

This figure is more defensible than claiming a 171% return based solely on the strongest forecast. For larger investments, use sensitivity analysis to show which assumptions have the greatest effect. Adoption rate, manager reinforcement and time to benefit often matter more than small changes in design cost.

Connect Learning To Evidence

Choose a measurement design that matches the decision and the available data. A baseline-and-follow-up comparison may be sufficient for a stable process. A comparison group, phased rollout or matched business unit offers stronger evidence when the expected benefit is significant.

Separate financial benefits from supporting indicators. Reduced rework, lower turnover, faster case resolution and increased revenue can be converted into monetary values. Confidence, knowledge retention and manager ratings are valuable leading indicators, but they should not be added to financial benefits as if they were cash.

Risk also comes from factors outside learning. A sales uplift may reflect pricing changes, market demand or a new incentive plan. A reduction in incidents may follow equipment upgrades or revised work procedures. Record these influences and apply an attribution factor, such as crediting the program with 40% of the measured improvement rather than 100%.

For a hybrid or virtual cohort, virtual leadership development may reduce travel and scheduling costs, but the model should test whether remote practice, manager involvement and team application are equally strong. Australian teams spread across metropolitan and regional locations can create different access and participation patterns.

Govern The Model Responsibly

A risk-adjusted model should be treated as a living forecast. Refresh it when pilot results, attendance data, operational performance or market conditions change. A monthly review may suit a high-volume compliance program; a quarterly review can be practical for leadership development or enterprise capability work.

Include privacy and employment obligations in the measurement design. Under the Privacy Act 1988, personal learning and performance data should be collected for clear purposes, protected appropriately and shared on a need-to-know basis. The Fair Work Act 2009 and applicable workplace agreements may affect participation time, roster arrangements and consultation. Work health and safety duties also matter when training involves practical tasks, fatigue, travel or high-risk environments.

Use a threshold decision rather than relying on ROI alone. For example, continue scaling when adoption exceeds 55% and the lower-bound ROI remains positive; redesign when participation is high but workplace application is weak; pause when the conservative case creates unacceptable financial or operational exposure. A library of sample courses can help teams compare delivery options, but the business case should still be built around the organisation’s own outcomes and constraints.

The central discipline is to make uncertainty visible. A strong model shows what must happen for value to appear, how likely those conditions are and which evidence will confirm or challenge the forecast. Remember that credible learning ROI is less about producing an impressive percentage than linking cost, adoption, behaviour and business results in a transparent chain.

Learning to Performance

Learning to Performance, a complete training approach, gives companies world-class training to drive significant return. This approach includes upfront work (Impact Mapping, design), training (for staff and company executives), and post-training efforts to ensure training transfer. This unique recipe - the key for successful training and adoption - is changing the way companies implement training. This methodology could work with any content for organizations in any industry.