Your Chief Virtual Learning Architect

Learning to Performance

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Custom Design & Delivery

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Predictive Evaluation

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Enterprise Learning Strategy

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Dave Basarab Consulting has elevated the training experience, offering an end-to-end comprehensive approach that includes training strategy, instructional design, development, delivery , post program training transfer, and evaluation (via the unique Predictive Evaluation methodology). Virtual Chief Architect Dave Basarab has combined all of these individual training elements with his user-friendly, comprehensive Learning to Performance approach, which significantly increases companies' training ROI.

Why we are different

Innovation: Our primary focus is creating learning programs using a Learning to Performance approach.
Expertise: Dave offers the depth and breadth of his experience, including working internally at prestigious companies (Motorola, Ingersoll Rand and Pitney Bowes) as well as his knowledge and expertise as a highly-respected, sought-after consultant.
Partnership: Basarab collaborates with companies, serving as their own Chief Learning Officer whenever they need to plan, strategize, or implement training initiatives.

Training Services

Enterprise Learning Strategy

Enterprise Learning Strategy

At Dave Basarab Consulting, we're experts in creating Enterprise Learning Plans. We work with you to develop your company's learning strategy and direction.

Custom Design, Development, & Delivery

Custom Design, Development, & Delivery

Custom training is an effective way of developing the capability required to execute your strategy. We are a custom design house that creates programs specific to your business.

Learning Burst Development

Learning Burst Development

We can create and deliver your courses via our unique Learning Burst Method - keeping your employees at their jobs while receiving world-class training.

Predictive Evaluation

Predictive Evaluation

We predict the ROI for your courses and establish success gates. We then evaluate the course against the success gates to show value realized and continually improve results.

Leadership Development

Leadership Development

Turn-key virtual custom leadership development program that combines world-class leadership speakers/educators with post-event personalized coaching to provide you with a cadre of highly skilled leaders.

Predictive Evaluation

How to Forecast Learning Burst ROI Before Launch

A learning burst series can be quick to create and easy to distribute, yet its business value still needs deliberate forecasting. Short modules may improve product knowledge, manager behavior, compliance, or operational consistency, but those outcomes must be connected to measurable performance indicators before launch.

A credible return-on-investment estimate does not require perfect data. It requires a transparent model that identifies the behavior the series is intended to change, estimates likely adoption, and converts that change into financial value. This gives decision-makers a practical basis for approving, adjusting, or stopping the initiative.

The process also creates a measurement plan for the learning team. By setting assumptions in advance, organizations can compare predicted adoption and impact with actual results instead of relying on completion rates or positive feedback alone.

Define the Business Result First

Begin with the operational problem behind the learning burst series. A goal such as “improve communication” is difficult to value, while “reduce average customer escalations by 8%” or “shorten new-hire ramp time by two weeks” provides a measurable business connection.

Identify the performance indicator that learning is expected to influence, along with its current baseline. Useful measures may include sales conversion, quality defects, service resolution time, employee retention, safety incidents, or manager productivity. The closer the measure is to the targeted behavior, the stronger the ROI forecast will be.

Establish the Financial Baseline

Next, calculate the current cost of the problem. For example, if 1,000 service cases generate an average avoidable cost of $12 each, the monthly opportunity is $12,000. If the learning series is expected to prevent a portion of those costs, the forecast can use that baseline rather than an unsupported estimate.

Include the full cost of the intervention. Account for instructional design, subject-matter expert time, technology, facilitation, communications, learner time, manager reinforcement, and evaluation. A short format does not automatically mean a low total cost, particularly when the program includes multiple bursts and follow-up activities.

Estimate Adoption Before Impact

Learning availability is different from learning adoption. Forecast the percentage of the target population that will access the bursts, complete them, remember the content, and apply the relevant behavior. Each stage can reduce the number of people who ultimately contribute to business value.

Use historical participation data, manager support, communication reach, workflow integration, and content relevance to create an adoption range. A conservative, expected, and optimistic scenario is more useful than one precise percentage that suggests false certainty. Dave Basarab Consulting’s adoption dashboards can support visibility into participation and behavior indicators as the program develops.

Convert Behavior Change Into Value

The central calculation links the number of eligible employees to adoption, behavior change, and financial impact. A simple forecast can be expressed as:

Expected benefit = eligible population × adoption rate × behavior-change rate × value per improved outcome

For example, 500 employees may have access to a series, with 70% expected to adopt the target practice. If 25% of adopters are expected to improve performance and each improvement is valued at $400 annually, the forecast benefit is $35,000. This estimate should then be adjusted for attribution, since other initiatives or market conditions may contribute to the result.

Forecast Element	Example Assumption	Why It Matters
Eligible employees	500	Defines the potential reach
Expected adoption	70%	Estimates active use, not availability
Behavior-change rate	25%	Connects learning to application
Value per improved outcome	$400	Translates performance into money
Forecast gross benefit	$35,000	Provides the value estimate
Program cost	$14,000	Includes delivery and learner time
Estimated net benefit	$21,000	Gross benefit minus total cost
Forecast ROI	150%	Net benefit divided by cost

Model Attribution and Timing

A learning burst series may influence results gradually rather than immediately. Set a time horizon that matches the business outcome: several weeks for process accuracy, a quarter for sales behavior, or longer for leadership and retention outcomes. This prevents early measurement from understating the value of a developing intervention.

Attribution also deserves explicit treatment. If the forecast assumes that learning accounts for 40% of the measured improvement, document why. Comparisons with a pilot group, historical performance, manager assessments, workflow data, or participant-level analysis can strengthen the estimate. When evidence is limited, reduce the attribution factor instead of inflating the expected return.

Stress-Test the Forecast

Run sensitivity scenarios before launch. Change the assumptions that have the greatest effect on value, such as adoption, behavior transfer, financial benefit per outcome, and implementation cost. If the program remains worthwhile under conservative assumptions, the business case is more resilient.

Use the forecast to make design decisions. Strong reinforcement may increase cost while improving application. Manager toolkits may raise adoption more effectively than additional content. A smaller pilot may reduce initial reach but provide better evidence before a wider rollout. Predictive Evaluation helps position these choices as measurable investment decisions rather than informal learning preferences.

Practical Forecasting Recommendations

Set a baseline for the business metric before any content is released.
Separate access, completion, application, and business impact in the model.
Use conservative, expected, and optimistic assumptions for major variables.
Include learner time, manager reinforcement, technology, and evaluation costs.
Assign owners and review dates for each forecast measure.

Turn the Estimate Into a Decision

A pre-launch ROI forecast should end with a clear decision rule. Define the minimum adoption level, behavior-change rate, or payback period that would justify continuation. Establish what evidence would trigger redesign, additional reinforcement, or expansion.

Bring business leaders, operational managers, finance partners, and learning professionals into the assumptions review. Then launch with a baseline, a measurement calendar, and visible ownership. Build your next learning burst series around a forecast that connects adoption to business results, and use the evidence to guide investment from the first release onward.

Learning to Performance

Learning to Performance, a complete training approach, gives companies world-class training to drive significant return. This approach includes upfront work (Impact Mapping, design), training (for staff and company executives), and post-training efforts to ensure training transfer. This unique recipe - the key for successful training and adoption - is changing the way companies implement training. This methodology could work with any content for organizations in any industry.